中国保险业顺周期性的实证分析

An Empirical Research on Pro-cyclicality of Insurance in China

本文在现有关于保险公司保险周期研究的基础上,对保险公司经营中的顺周期性进行实证研究。通过选取中国17家保险公司2003-2009年年度数据作为分析样本,利用面板数据模型进行实证分析,发现保险公司的顺周期效应显著;此外,还发现寿险公司的承保业务强于财险公司而投资业务弱于财险公司。本文建议对保险公司采取逆周期监管,提高保险公司经营的平稳性,促进金融体系稳健经营。

Based on existing research, this paper studies the periodicity of insurance firms fromthe viewpoint of pro-cyclicality. Using the panel data model with annual data from 2003 to 2009 of 17 insurance firms, the authors clearly find that insurance companies are under salient impact of pro-cyclical effect. The underwriting business of life insurance companies is stronger than that of property insurance companies, while their investment business of the former is weaker. The thesis suggests a regular surveillance on insurance companies in order to improve their overall stability, thus to further promote sustainable and stable development of financial system.