摘要
[目的]该研究旨在利用1996-2007年省级历史数据探讨气候变化对小麦种植面积的影响。[方法]设立了一个面板计量经济模型,并用滞后一期变量和固定效应来控制不可观测因素的影响。[结果]研究结果表明,气温升高对小麦种植面积增长有正影响,而降雨量则没有统计上显著的影响。[结论]该研究为我国的小麦种植的决定因素分析提供了实证依据。
[Objective] This study aimed to explore the impact of climate change on wheat cropping by using province-specific historical data during 1996-2007. [Method] We established a panel data econometric model with lagged wheat cropping area and province-specific fixed-effects model to control the unobserved factors. [Result] The results showed that the temperature positively affects wheat cropping area, while precipitation does not have such impact. [Conclusion] The study provided empirical evidence for analysis of the determinants of wheat cropping area in China.
基金
Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41101165)~~
