青南高原雪灾模拟评估与服务对策

SIMULATION APPRAISAL ON AND SERVICE COUNTERMEASURES TO THE SNOW-DISATER IN SOUTHERN PLATEAU AREA OF QINGHAI PROVINCE

对青南牧区逐旬最大积雪资料作了整理分析，提出了冬、春季雪灾的标准，并建立了雪灾等级序列年表。用相关普查初选雪灾等级的预报因子，利用精选因子，按最优子集回归原理，建立了雪灾的预报模拟评估方程。按预报模拟值的等级，提出了相应的服务对策。

After sorting out and analysing the maximum snow cover data ten-days by ten-dsys in southem Qinghai province area, the authors give the standard of snow-disaster in winter and spring, and estabish the sequence cbronology of snow-disaster grade. Also choose the forecashng factors of snow-disaster grad Prelihanarily through correlation investigation,set up the simulation appraisal equation of snow-diaseter forecast with carefully chosen factors and on principle of optimal subset regression,and put forward the service countermeasures according to forecasting grade of simulahon value.