巢湖流域生态安全评价研究

Study on ecological security evaluation of the Chaohu Lake Basin

目前,巢湖流域的生态安全问题非常突出,已严重影响流域社会经济的可持续发展。基于巢湖流域社会经济、水体环境质量及水生生态系统的数据资料,应用驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应(DPSIR)模型,提出了基于水环境和水生态的巢湖流域生态安全评价框架模型和指标体系,并采用熵权物元模糊评价法进行巢湖流域生态安全评价研究。研究结果表明,2003和2007年巢湖流域整体处于生态安全中度风险状态,水体环境质量的变化和水生生态系统的演替将严重威胁巢湖流域的生态安全,水体中的TP浓度、NH-N浓度以及TN浓度是决定巢湖流域生态安全的最关键因子。

At present, ecological safety problem of the Chaohu Lake Basin is very serious, hindering the sustainable development of society and economy. We proposed the Chaohu Lake Basin ecological security assessment framework model and index system based on water environment and water ecology by using the data of society and economy, water environmental quality and aquatic ecosystems in the Chaohu Lake Basin, and applying driving force - pressure - state - impact - response （DPSIR） model. We also assessed ecological security of the Chaohu Lake by using fuzzy entropy matter-element evaluation method. The results show that overall, the Chaohu Lake Basin is in a moderate risk status of ecological safety in 2003 and 2007; the changes of water quality of the environment and aquatic ecosystem were a serious threat to the basin ecological security; the TP concentration, NH3-N concentration and TN concentration in water were the most critical factors determining ecological security of the Chaohu Lake Basin.