基于心态指标的区间灰数预测模型

Prediction Model of Interval Grey Number Base on Attitude Index

针对传统灰色预测模型仅适用于实数序列而无法进行区间灰数序列建模的缺陷,引入决策者心态指标,把区间灰数序列转化为带有心态指标的序列,并且当心态指标确定时,带有心态指标的序列就转化为体现决策者心态的实数序列,然后通过对体现决策者心态的实数序列建立灰色预测模型,从而得到了一种基于心态指标的区间灰数预测模型。由于决策者可以通过调整其心态指标建立灰色预测模型,因而使得模型预测更加符合实际。

According to the fact that traditional grey prediction models are only appropriate for forecasting real number sequence but not for interval grey number sequence, by introducing the attitude index of decision maker, the interval grey number sequence is transformed into sequence with attitude index when the attitude index of decision maker is known, the sequence with attitude index is transformed into real number sequence. By embodying the attitude of decision maker and building grey prediction model for real number sequence with the attitude index of decision maker, an interval grey number prediction model with attitude index of decision maker is proposed. As the decision maker can build adjusting the attitude index, model prediction is more practical. Finally, a practical example posed model. grey prediction model through is given to illustrate the proposed model.