不确定性下创意企业价值评估分析

The Valuation Analysis of Creative Industry Enterprises under Uncertainty

文章从产品产业化过程的角度出发对创意产业企业不确定性进行了分析,归纳出创意产业企业的不确定性来源。鉴于不确定性的复杂性和创意产业的实物期权特征,以及对企业价值评估模型的讨论,改进了Schwartz-Moon期权模型,对创意产业企业价值进行评估。从连续时间和离散时间两种情况出发,构建了创意产业企业预期收入与企业现金流模型,在此基础上,讨论了可变成本、产权收入和公司产品的价值损失三个变量与创意产业的企业价值的关系,并在考虑税率的情况下构建企业税后净收入模型以全面考察创意产业企业价值。

This paper analyzes the uncertainty of creative industry enterprise from the perspective of products industrialization, and sununarizes the sources of uncertainty. Considering the complexity of uncertainty of creative industry, this article improves the Schwartz-Moon options model after discussing valuation models. We measure the value of creative industries enterprise from the perspective of continuous time and discrete time, and construct the enterprise expected income and cash flow models. In addition, We study the impact of the sunk cost variable, property income variable and value of the company＇s products loss variable to creative industries enterprises and build the enterprise net income after tax model in order to investigate the enterprise valuation.