我国政府投资效应的CGE模型分析——基于“刘易斯”宏观闭合框架下的模拟

Study on the Economic Impact of the China's Government Investment:CGE Simulation Based on Lewis Macro-Closure

以往国内利用可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型进行实证研究的文献,大多是假设中国处在资本充足、充分就业的"新古典主义"宏观闭合框架下,忽视了我国目前处于二元经济的客观事实。本文基于中国现阶段的基本国情,建立了一个"刘易斯"宏观闭合下的CGE模型,并利用该方法模拟了2008年末我国启动的政府投资(1.18万亿)对经济各个方面产生的影响。模拟结果显示:政府投资将会在未来几年之内拉动实际GDP增长1.83%、提升总消费2.1%、社会总投资9.89%、进口额2.09%、出口额2.14%,同时将带来约1805万的新增就业机会。

Computable general equilibrium （CGE） model is able to estimate the direct and indirect impacts on all economic departments from a particular policy change. For this reason, it has been widely used in the financial and tax academic field. Most domestic scholars and literature which used the computable general equilibrium model to do empirical studies always con- sidered China in a capital adequacy and full employment situation. However, they ignore the fact that China now is in a ＂dual economy＂ environment. This paper builds a CGE model with a Lewis c closure, and counterfactually simulated the economic impact from the 1.18 trillion government investment policy in 2008. The results indicate that china govemment investment will increase real GDP growth by 1.83%, enhance actual total consumption by 2.1%, total investment by 9.89%, increase the import volume by 2.09%, export volume by 2.14%, and generate about 18.0 million new working opportunities.