中国高额持有美国国债的风险与对策

The Risks and Strategies of China's High Position in U.S.Treasury Debt

美国国债曾是公认的最安全的投资品。2001年以来,中国持有的美国国债随外汇储备的快速增长而增加;美国国债规模也随美国"双赤字"的扩大而膨胀。美国的政治生态及美元的霸权特性使得美国的"双赤字"难于控制,美国国债的潜在风险日益显现。中国主要面临退出困难及债权资产实际价值可能大幅缩水的困扰。建议中国利用最大债主的地位制约美国以维护自身权益;同时控制外汇储备增量优化外汇储备结构以掌握风险控制的主动权。

The U.S. treasury debt has been regarded as the safest investment. Since the year 2001, Chinese holdings of the U.S. treasury debt are increasing rapidly due to an increment of the foreign exchange reserve. At the same time, the balance of the U.S. national debt is growing due to the expansion of American＂double deficits.＂ However, American political ecology and the u.s dollars hegemony wake it fall into＂double deficits.＂ Thus, the risks of the U.S. treasury debt become more and more ob- vious. China, mainly faces the difficulties of withdrawing and the actual value depreciation of the U.S. treasury debt. This article suggests that China ,as the U.S largest creditor, should urge the U.S. to protect Chinas rights, limit an increment of foreign exchange reserve and optimize the structure of foreign exchange reserve to gain the initiative of risk control.