榆林市环境负荷的动态分析与预测

Dynamic Analysis and Prediction Forecast of Environment Load for Yulin Region

为了协调经济发展与区域环境之间的关系,利用IGT模型及其推导方程,并以榆林市为例,建立了区域大气环境、水环境及能源能耗负荷3项指标与GDP的关系模型,分析了榆林市'十一五'期间资源和环境负荷的发展情况,并用4种情景方案预测了2011年～2020年期间该地区的3项指标.结果表明:'十一五'期间,区域大气中SO2的负荷相对较小,水环境和能源能耗负荷较大;在GDP年均递增0.2情况下,如不采取任何措施降低单位GDP环境负荷,即环境负荷下降率t=0,则环境负荷将与GDP同步增长;当t=0.1时,3项指标随着GDP的增长逐年上升,但是上升趋势明显减缓;当t=0.15时,3项指标的环境负荷趋于稳定,基本保持在2010年的水平,年均递增率在2%左右;当t=0.2时,3项指标的环境负荷将穿越'环境高山',达到经济与环境可持续发展状况.根据研究结果建议,在未来10年中,榆林市GDP增长率应控制在0.2以下,t控制在0.1～0.15之间,资源环境与经济才能协调发展.

The IGT model was applied to establish the relationship between the economic development and the loads of the environment including atmosphere, water, and energy consumption for the Yulin region. The analysis was performed on the development of the resources and the envi- ronmental loads in the Yulin region by the IGT model, and the atmosphere, water, and energy consumption in the period 2011-2020 were predicted for four cases. The results show that, during the llth five-year period, the environmental load of atmosphere was relatively small while those of water and energy consumption were significant. When the average increase rate of GDP is 0. 2 per year, the environmental loads will increase with the increase in GDP if there is no measure to reduce the environmental loads per unit GDP（ i. e. , t=0）. If t=0. 2, the development of both the environmental protection and the economic growth will be sustainable. These results suggest that the increase rate of GDP should be below 0. 2 and t is 0. 1-0. 15 for the Yulin region in order to balance environment against economy.