摘要
通过对传统GM(1,1)模型的原始数据序列进行加速平移变换和几何平均变换,有效弱化了原始数据序列的随机性,得到了变换的GM(1,1)模型。将其应用到某钻井公司的钻井成本预测分析中,利用Matlab7.0计算软件计算得到了预测值;同时对该公司某油田的某一区块2002年~2009年的单位钻井成本进行了残差和相对误差的检验。结果表明:变换的GM(1,1)模型大大提高了预测的精度。在此基础上,对未来三年该区块的单位钻井成本进行了预测,其结果对该公司在该区块的钻井活动起到了重要的指导作用。
Through accelerating both translation and geometric average transformation for raw data sequence of traditional GM(1,1) model,the randomness of sequence is weakened,and a transformed GM(1,1) model is obtained.This model has been applied to cost prediction of a drilling company.A predictive value is calculated by Matlab 7.0 software.Meanwhile,the residuals and relative error of the unit drilling cost are tested for a certain period(2002 ~ 2009) in an oilfield of the company.Result shows that the transformed model increases greatly the prediction accuracy.Moreover,the unit drilling cost of the block in the next three years has been forecasted.
出处
《天然气勘探与开发》
2012年第1期69-72,75,共5页
Natural Gas Exploration and Development