基于多模型的黄河源区径流极值情景预测

Scenarios Forecasting of Runoff Extreme Value in Source Region of Yellow River Based on Multiple Hydrological Models

基于HadCM3提供的未来情景,采用HBV模型、新安江模型、TOP模型和径流极值的评估方法,分析和预测了气候变化下黄河源区径流量的变化情况。结果表明,三个模型均能较好地模拟黄河源区唐乃亥站的历史径流系列;在A2和B2情景下,黄河源区未来多年平均径流量呈减少趋势,径流年内分配的变化表现为夏、秋季节的径流量显著减少,而冬、春季节的径流变化趋势随水文模型的变化而变化;未来高流量事件的发生频率呈减少趋势,洪水强度可能会进一步缓和,而冬季低流量事件频繁发生的可能性增加。

Based on the future scenarios provided by HadCM3 model, HBV model, Xinanjiang model, TOP model and runoff extreme value method are applied to analyze and predict runoff variation in source region of the Yellow River under condition of climate change. The results show that three hydrological models can simulate historical runoff in Tang- naihai station very well; under A2 and B2 scenarios, annual average runoff in source region of the Yellow River appears decreasing trend; runoff distribution appears decreasing trend in summer and autumn; however, the change trend of run- off is more sensitivity to the hydrological model during winter and spring; the high discharge event will undergo decrea- sing trend and the strength of flood would fall; the probability of low flow frequency events would increase in winter.