犯罪对金融发展的影响研究——基于中国经验的实证研究

Crime and Financial Development——Evidence from China

在理论上,犯罪活动可能通过弱化财产安全和交易契约的有效性、阻碍社会资本的形成和成长以及恶化投资环境等渠道阻碍金融的深化。本文基于中国1997—2009年30个省市的面板数据的分析结果证实,在控制住经济变量、法律环境等变量之后,犯罪率显著地阻碍了中国的金融发展。总体而言,每万人的犯罪人数每增加一例,当地金融中介的私人贷款占GDP的比例将下降1.6个百分点左右;同时,分地区考察的结果还发现,在金融深化水平更高的东部地区,犯罪率对金融发展的阻碍作用也更大,意味着犯罪率对金融发展的阻碍程度与金融发展水平有关。

In theory, criminal activities can obstacle the financial deepening in many ways, such as weakening the security of properties and the effectiveness of trading contract, inhabiting the formation and growth of social capital, deteriorate the investment environment and so on. This paper measures the impact of crime on financial development by exploiting the panel data of 30 provinces of China from 1997 to 2009. Our central result is that criminal activities significant hindered China ＇ s financial development. Further more, one criminal case （ every ten thousand ） increase, FINPRI （ private loans of local financial intermediaries on GDP） will lower about 1.6 percent. Meanwhile, sub-regional study shows that crime plays a greater role to hinder the development of financial in the eastern region where has higher level of financial depth. This result also means that how much the influence of crime to financial development is related to the level of the financial deepening.