基于ARCH类模型的广东省经济波动特征研究

Studying on Guangdong's Economy Fluctuation with ARCH Family Models

利用ARCH类模型对广东省实际GDP的波动率进行了实证分析。结果表明基于正态分布假设下的GARCH模型更能准确地描述广东省经济系统的波动特征。这意味着广东省的经济波动是对称的,经济系统自身不具备自我稳定机制,因此必须依靠非经济的力量进行有效干预以保证经济平稳过渡。

The real GDP fluctuation of Guangdong Province applying ARCH Family Models has been analyzed. The results show that the GARCH model based on the assumption of normal distribution makes more accurate description of the Guangdong Province, which me,ms that economic fluctuations is symmetrical, the economic system itself does not have the self - stabilizing mechanism. The non - economic interference is necessary to make the economy transition steady.