干散货船新接订单量与世界GDP增长率的协整分析

Analysis of Co-integration on Relation Between Dry Bulk Carrier Contracts and World GDP Growth Rate

基于协整检验理论和误差修正模型,利用1977～2009年大跨度数据,对干散货船新接订单量与世界GDP增长率关系进行了实证分析,结果表明两者之间存在着长期稳定的正向关系。Granger因果关系检验证实世界GDP增长率对干散货船新接订单量有着单向的因果关系。

This paper analyzes the relation between the world dry bulk carrier contracts and world GDP growth rate based on the co-integration and error correction model with the data from 1977 to 2009.The empirical results show that there is a stable positive equilibrium relation between them in the long run.Through the Granger causality test,we come to the conclusion that there is a unidirectional causality from the GDP growth rate to the world dry bulk carrier contracts.