基于事件树分析的沉船碍航概率风险评估

Shipwreck accident probabilistic risk assessment based on event tree analysis

基于事件树分析方法探索沉船碍航事故的发生过程和机理.将通航船舶触碰沉船事故的发生分为两个阶段:通航船舶要经过沉船区域;通航船舶经过沉船区域时驶入碰撞航路并且未能有效避碰.基于沉船碍航事件树分析,建立沉船碍航概率风险评估模型.结合海事科技的发展现状,考虑模型参数的可获得性,确保模型的实用性和可操作性.模型应用结果表明,该模型可迅速有效进行沉船碍航风险的定量评估,评估结果与历史操作经验较吻合.

The process and mechanism of navigable vessels contacting with shipwreck were analyzed based on event tree analysis method.The event of navigable vessel contacting with shipwreck was divided into two phases： navigable vessels went through shipwreck field,and then some navigable vessels got into collision route and collision avoidance failed for some reasons.Shipwreck accident probabilistic risk assessment model was established based on event tree analysis of shipwreck accident.Combining with the present status of marine science and technology development,the model was ensured to be practical and operational considering the availability of model parameters.The applied results of the proposed model show that the model can be used for quantitative shipwreck accident risk assessment quickly and effectively,which agrees with historical operational experience.