后危机时代世界石油海运业发展趋势

Post-crisis world oil shipping industry trends

2008年世界金融危机使石油海运市场受到较大影响,石油运量和运价出现明显下滑,油轮订单和造船价格也双双走低。随着后危机时代的到来,虽然石油海运相关行业的一些指标出现不同程度的反弹,但全球油轮运价指数、主要油轮船型期租价格、新船造价还将继续低位调整。从中长期来看,未来石油消费刚性增长,海运量将稳步提高。预测2015年世界原油和成品油海运量合计将达到31.58亿吨,其中原油约23.73亿吨,成品油约7.85亿吨。全球油轮运力过剩局面将延续,运价短期内难以恢复;油轮造船能力过剩,竞争形势不容乐观。当前底部趋势比较明显,石油公司和油轮公司应抓住机遇,在较低的造船成本期构建和更新现有运力;造船企业应在订单低迷期加强技术储备与创新,以应对未来激烈的市场竞争。

The global shipping market was adversely impacted by the 2008 world financial crisis.Oil shipping volume,freight rates,tanker orders and shipbuilding prices all saw significant declines.As the post-crisis era unfolds some oil shipping related industry indices have bounced back to different degrees;however,the global tanker freight index,the leasing cost of the main oil tankers and the shipbuilding cost for new tankers will adjust very slowly.From a medium and long-term perspective,shipping volume will steadily increase thanks to steady growth in oil consumption.By 2015 the shipping volume of total world crude oil and refined oil will reach 3.158 billion tons,of which crude oil will be about 2.373 billion tons and refined oil will be about 785 million tons.Global overcapacity in tankers will continue and pre-crisis freight rates aren't likely to resume in the short term;tanker shipbuilding will also face overcapacity and the outlook for competition is not optimistic.With prices so obviously inclined to be low,oil and tanker companies shall replace and update existing shipping capacity with relatively low shipbuilding cost during this period;shipbuilding enterprises should increase and save technology innovation during the slow order-growth period to cope with subsequent fierce market competition.