世界炼油工业面临的形势和主要发展动向

Current state and outlook of the world refining industry

当前,世界炼油工业面临全球经济复苏曲折,石油需求增速放缓,国际原油价格高位震荡、轻重质原油价差增大,炼油能力过剩、利润长期低迷以及下游建设成本增大、炼厂新建和扩能改造项目减少的严峻形势。因此,未来炼油工业的发展方向是:提高劣质重油加工水平;为适应油品结构变化趋势,多渠道增产柴油;生产低硫、超低硫清洁燃料;继续发展生物燃料。我国炼油工业面临原油资源供应趋紧、原油品质劣质化、节能减排和环保要求趋严等挑战,建议采取以下对策:1)扩大原油来源,实现炼厂加工原料资源多元化;2)进一步提高劣质重油深加工能力,优化资源配置,调整产品结构,加快炼厂装置改造步伐;3)加快清洁燃料生产升级换代,提高加氢装置比例;4)集中力量攻克关键技术,同时加强引进技术的消化吸收和再创新,提高自主创新能力。

The world refining industry faces grim circumstances,such as uncertainty and instability in the global economy,slowdown in oil demand growth,international crude oil prices stuck at a high shock level,a widening spread between light and heavy oil prices,excess refining capacity,low profit outlook for the long term,rising downstream construction costs,and reduction in projects to build new or reconstruct existing refining facilities.Therefore the refining industry should develop as follows:improved processing of lower-quality heavy-oil;increased diesel production in adaptation to the changing structure of the oil industry;more production of low-sulfur and ultra-low-sulfur clean fuels;and continued development of biofuels.China's refining industry is facing a variety of challenges,from tightening supply of crude oil resources to lower crude oil quality and stringent requirements for energy saving,lower emissions and environmental protection;so,it is advisable to take the following measures:1)expand crude oil sourcing to achieve resource diversity of processed raw materials at refining plants;2)improve capability for processing lower-quality heavy-oil,and optimize the distribution of resources,adjusting the mix of oil products and speeding up equipment upgrade at refining plants;3)accelerate upgrading clean fuel production,and increase the proportion of hydrogenation devices;4)focus on research& development of key technology,increase purchase and licensing of imported technology and improve independent innovation ability.