货币超发是中国通货膨胀的根源吗?——基于DSGE模型不确定均衡解的分析

Is Currency Over-issue the Root of China's Inflation?——Analysis based on DSGE Indeterminacy Solutions

本文构建了一个充分反映中国宏观经济结构和体制特征的DSGE模型,并用贝叶斯估计方法对模型进行了估计和分析。我们发现,中国宏观经济存在非确定均衡解,自我实现的通胀预期对中国通货膨胀和产出波动有显著的影响,逆向供给冲击是近年来中国通货膨胀的主要原因。通过反事实模拟方法,我们发现近年来我国央行实施的实际货币政策基本符合最优货币政策,我们还估算中国货币增长长期目标的适度水平为18%左右,过高或过低的货币增长率都会加大消费和通货膨胀的波动,并降低社会的长期福利水平。

A DSGE model fully reflecting china＇s economic structure and institutional character is constructed and estimated using Bayesian methods. We find that indeterminacy solutions exist in china＇s macro-economy, self-fulfilling inflation expectation contribute significantly to china＇s inflation volatility and negative supply shocks are mainly responsible for china＇s inflation since 2006. By using counter-factual simulations, we find the practical monetary policies in china are mainly consistent with theoretical optimal policy. We also estimate that the optimal money growth rate in china should be 18%, any deviation from which may cause welfare loss in general.