人民币升值能否促进中国国际收支基本平衡?——基于FAVAR模型的分析

May the RMB Appreciation Promote China's BOP Equilibrium?——Analysis based on FAVAR Model

本文运用FAVAR模型,根据中美两国1985-2010年相关变量的时间序列数据,对人民币升值能否纠正中国国际收支失衡问题进行了分析。研究发现,中国出口退税和中美两国GDP增长率对中国经常项目顺差的带动作用显著,导致人民币升值的反向调节效果不明显;在人民币升值背景下,跨境资本在中国境内存在较高的投资回报率预期和套利收入,能够有效削弱国际资本对购买力损失风险的敏感性,使得资本与金融项目顺差表现出较强的内生性;在人民币升值作用受到制约的条件下,中国人民银行在追求宏观经济目标时将面临"三难选择",希望通过提高人民币汇率弹性来调节国际收支失衡的成效不明显,应通过结构调整最终实现国际收支基本平衡。

By FAVAR model, based on the Chinese and American related variables of the time series data from 1985 to 2010, this paper analyzed whether the appreciation of RMB can correct China international imbalances of payments. Research found that China＇s export tax refunds and the GDP growth of both China and the U. S. play an important role in China＇s current- account surplus, but it is not outstanding in the reverse adjustment effect of the RMB appreciation. Under the pressure of the RMB appreciation, the cross-border capitals to China expect higher investment returns and carry trade, which can effectively weaken the purchasing power loss risk of the international capitals and make the capital and financial account strongly endogenous. Constrained by the appreciation conditions, the People＇s Bank of China in the pursuit of macro economic goals will face the policy dilemma. While improving the RMB exchange rate flexibility is not effective in adjusting the imbalance of payments, the basic equilibrium in the balance of payments can be realized through structural adjustments.