公路桥梁风险估测方法

A method of risk estimation of highway bridges

为了提高公路桥梁风险估测的精度、效率和可操作性,提出了响应面法与改进德尔菲法相结合的桥梁风险估测方法.给出了基于响应面法进行桥梁损伤概率计算的流程,利用改进德尔菲法对专家意见进行最优化调整以实现风险损失等级的定量估测.通过对内蒙古一座大型自锚式悬索桥运营期地震损伤风险估测,验证了该方法的有效性与实用性.实例应用表明:基于响应面法的桥梁结构损伤概率估测方法既考虑了具体桥梁的受力特性又考虑了客观存在的不确定性,能定量计算结构损伤风险概率;改进德尔菲法克服了传统德尔菲法的不足,在保证专家意见可靠性的同时减少了计算和统计工作量,提高了风险评估工作的效率.

In order to improve the accuracy,efficiency and maneuverability of risk estimation of highway bridges,a response surface method and the improved Delphi method based framework for risk assessment of highway bridges is proposed.The flowchart of damage risk probability analysis of bridges based on response surface method is presented.The improved Delphi method is proposed to estimate the risk of highway bridges.The results of expert survey are adjusted by an optimization model,then the grade of risk loss is estimated quantificationally using the improved Delphi method.The damage risk assessment under earthquake of a self-anchored suspension bridge is carried out for illustrating the application and efficiency of the proposed methodology.The illustrative example indicates that not only the specific characteristics of the bridge but also the objective existence of uncertainty are considered by the response surface method based bridge damage probability estimation method,structural damage risk probability is calculated quantitatively taking full advantage of existing research results;The improved Delphi method overcomes the deficiencies of the traditional Delphi method,the statistical and computational workload are reduced while the reliability of expert opinions are ensured,so the time required for risk estimation is shortened to improve the efficiency of the risk assessment.