中国产业结构演进的节能效应计量——基于1987-2007年的投入产出分析

Quantitative Analysis on Energy Saving Effect of China's Industry Structure Evolution:Based on Input-output Analysis from 1987 to 2007

产业结构是影响中国能源消耗水平的最主要因素。本文首先回顾总结了1952年以来随着产业结构演进,中国能源消费强度变化的总体和阶段性特征。然后将1987—2007年作为样本期,以投入产出方法为基础,构建结构分解分析模型,对中国产业结构演进的节能效应进行计量。实证分析结果表明,在1987—1997年期间,产业结构变化因子是促使能源强度降低的因素之一,而在1997—2007年期间,产业结构变化因子却成为促使能源强度上升的唯一因素,正是由于产业结构变化的逆向影响,致使1997—2007年的能源强度下降甚微。由此可见,未来中国节能减排的重点和难点都在于产业结构的调整。

At first,the paper reviews and summarizes overall and stage characteristics of energy intensity change by industry structure evolution from 1952.Then the paper measures energy saving effect of industry structure change by taking time from 1987 to 2007 as sample period.Based on input-output method,the paper constructs a structural decomposition analysis model to measure contribution value of industry structure change for energy intensity reduction.The model measures energy intensity reduction effect of three factors,which are industry structure,economy growth mode and energy efficiency.Results show that change of industry structure is one of factors to promote energy intensity decrease from 1987 to 1997,and its contribution value is-0.33 ton/ten thousand Yuan;but it became only one factor to promote energy intensity increase from 1997 to 2007,and its contribution value is 0.82 ton/ten thousand Yuan.Energy intensity decreased very slightly just because of this adverse impact of industry structure change from 1997 to 2007.So,industry structure is the main factor to affect China’s energy consumption,adjusting industry structure is key and difficult point for China energy saving in the future.