环境效率、行业异质性与最优规制强度——中国工业行业面板数据的非线性检验

Environmental Efficiency,Industrial Heterogeneity and Intensity of Optimal Regulation——Nonlinear Test Based on Industrial Panel-data

面对保增长和减排放的双重约束,传统的以减排为导向的环境政策不可避免会陷入两难困境。为此,本文针对污染物不同的处置性假设,以环境效率作为唯一确定环境绩效与产业发展的关系,测算了加入环境污染因素后我国工业各行业的环境效率,并基于异质性行业假定检验了我国环境规制与环境效率的非线性关系并确定了行业最优规制水平。研究表明:若考虑非期望产出(污染排放)的影响,中国工业环境效率有明显的下降;工业环境规制与环境效率正相关,一定程度上验证了"波特假说"的正确性;其中,环境规制对清洁生产型行业当期环境效率促进作用显著,而对污染密集型行业的影响存在滞后效应;环境规制强度和环境效率之间符合倒"U"型关系,具有显著的三重非线性门槛特征,但是,不同行业环境绩效对于环境规制强度的弹性系数和极值有所差异。本文政策涵义明显:及时调整传统基于减排导向的环境政策,考虑将提高环境效率纳入环境政策的目标决策中。同时,政府切忌走入盲目提高环境规制强度的误区,应根据各行业现实特点,有针对性地制定差异化的环境规制强度和标准,并注重滚动修订,及时调整至最优水平。

The dual constraint of economic growth and pollution reduction inevitably has led reduction-oriented environmental policy into a dilemma. Under the different disposal assumptions of pollutants, the paper evaluates the industrial environmental efficiency considering the environmental pollution in China, then tests the non-linear relationship between the environmental regulation and efficiency and determines the optimal intensity regulation from the point of industry heterogeneity. The result shows that when considering a non-desired outputs impact, industrial environment efficiency of China declines significantly, the efficiency of pollution-intensive industries is significantly lower than the clean-production industries. Environmental regulation is related to industrial environment positively which verifies the ＂Porter hypothesis＂ to a certain extent. The current promoting role in clean-production industry is more significant compared with pollution-intensive industries. The intensity of environmental regulation between environmental efficiency appears an inverted ＂U＂ type relationship with significant triple threshold characteristics. The policy implication is obvious ： the environmental efficiency should be incorporated into environmental policy. Government should put forward different intensity of environmental regulation based on the reality of industry characteristics, and focus on roiling revision adjusted to the optimal level.