基于生态社会和产业经济发展的我国林地“红线”合理预期目标量化研究

A Quantitative Study Based on Ecotype Community and Industrial Economy Development on the Rational Expectation Value of Woodland Red Line

林地是基础性的自然资源和战略性的经济资源,关系到我国的生态安全和经济社会的可持续发展,应该像严格保护耕地一样保护林地。我国耕地保护有18亿亩不可逾越的红线,林地保护同样需要划定红线目标。本文根据我国林地状况和林地保护利用,以及建设生态社会、应对气候变化、满足产品需求等生态社会和产业发展的需要,提出2020年前须坚守46.8亿亩林地面积的"红线"保护目标,并从治理国土等9个方面再造林需求(生态需求)和满足国民生计等3个方面新植林需求(经济需求),计算出4.08亿公顷森林面积的具体目标预期。

Woodland is the foundational natural resources and strategic economic resources, it is important to the sustain- able development between ecological security and economic society in our country. So we should protect the woodland the same as protecting cultivated land. There is an impassable red line which stands for 1.8 billion unit areas about cultivated land, woodland conservation also needs to be set a red line target. According to analyzing the condition of woodland and studying the use of woodland conservation in our country, furthermore, in consideration of the demands of the ecotype community and industrial development like building an ecotype community, replying the change of climate and meeting the needs of products, we put forward a red line target that before year 2020 we must stick to 46. 8 hundred million unit areas of woodland. Then, we can figure out the expected value of 4. 08 hundred million hectares forest, in nine ways to meet the reafforestation needs like land management （ecologlcal requirements） and other three ways to meet the needs of increasing new forestation, like satisfing people＇s livelihood （economic requirements）.