摘要
山西省是能源消费大省,认识经济增长与能源消费的内在关系,对于促进山西省经济社会可持续发展有重大意义。本文利用山西省1980~2010年能源消费总量和经济增长数据,通过Johansen检验发现两者为协整变量,且两者之间的长期均衡关系表明第t年的GDP和第t-1年的能源消费总量对第t年的能源消费有明显的影响。通过Granger因果关系检验发现GDP是能源消费总量的Granger原因,反之则不成立。提出转变经济增长方式、实施节能技术改造、完善能源法律与政策的建议。
Shanxi is an energy consumption province,and the knowledge of the relationship between economic growth(GDP) and energy consumption(EC) is vital to Shanxi's sustainable development.By using the data of 1980~2010 GDP and EC,and through Johansen cointegration test the paper finds that these two variables are cointegrated,and these two variables' long-term balance relationship shows GDPt and ECt-1 have obvious influence on ECt.Through Granger causality test,the paper finds there is unidirectional causality from GDP to EC.At last the paper proposes some countermeasures,which include the transformation of industrial structure,energy-saving technological transformation,the perfection of energy laws and policies etc.
出处
《中国矿业》
北大核心
2012年第3期32-34,共3页
China Mining Magazine
基金
国家自然科学基金项目资助(编号:71173141
70873079)
山西省自然科学基金研究项目资助(编号:2009011021-1)
山西省高校人文社会科学项目资助
山西省哲学社会科学规划项目资助
关键词
能源消费
经济增长
长期均衡关系
GRANGER因果关系检验
energy consumption
economic growth
long-term balance relationship
Johansen cointegration test
Granger causality test