中国的实体经济面支持人民币升值吗?

Does China’s Real Economy Support the Appreciation of RMB?

实体经济面因素是决定一国货币实际汇率变化趋势的根本性和长期性因素，这对于处在经济转型期的中国来说尤为重要。本文基于考虑这些因素的贸易品一非贸易品模型以及以全球截面回归结果为基准的经验分析表明，在均值回复可实现的情况下，人民币对美元实际汇率从2007年到2017年能够得到100％的矫正即年均升值2．3％-3．6％（基于单要素模型）或得到56％-71％的矫正即年均升值0．6％-1．99％（基于两要素模型）。如果中国相对于美国的价格水平保持相对稳定的话，则在2007-2017年10年里人民币名义升值应该与实际升值幅度相同，但若以此判断则近年来人民币名义升值速度和幅度（2007-2011年年均升值3．8％）已经超过本文基于实体经济面的估算结果。

The real economy factors are fundamental and long-term elements that determine the trend of the real exchange rate of a country ’ s money,which fact is particularly important for China in the period of her economic transition.Based on a tradable-non-tradable model that considers these factors and on the empirical analysis founded on the re gression results of the global cross-section,this paper shows that,with the cross-section regression results as the benchmark,the real exchange rates of RMB can be corrected by 100%(in the single-factor model) or by 56% to 71%(in the two-factor model) from 2007 to 2017 if the regression toward the mean is fully realized.This implies that RMB will appreciate by 2.3% to 3.6% or 0.6% to 1.99% per year(Based on the two-factor model).If China ’ s price level rel ative to that of the USA remains stable,RMB is expected to undergo the nominal appreciation by the same amount,but in recent years(2007-2011) the speed and scale of RMB appreciation(the annual appreciation was 3.8% during 2007 to 2011) has exceeded our estimates based on the real economy.