基于多智能体模拟的旅游地保护行为决策

The multiagent-based-model method in analyzing the conservation behavior strategies of tourism destination

运用基于复杂适应性系统理论支持下的ABM建模方法,以历史文化名镇湘西里耶镇为研究对象,构建多智能体构成的保护行为执行主体系统。以系统行为偏好和行为影响分析为切入点,分析古镇旅游开发过程中各智能体的保护行为特征,从微观层面研究各智能体的保护行为变化对系统行为决策的影响,并依据行为动态模拟结果推导反映系统协调和优化的古镇保护行为决策。研究表明:(1)不同旅游开发阶段,系统保护行为决策差异明显;社区居民在古镇保护中起主导作用;(2)智能体的行为选择具有自主性、目的性和有度性特征;(3)建立分层和分级的保护行为协调体系,实施整体行为协调与重点保护相结合;(4)不同发展阶段,对各智能体与系统整体保护行为决策应实施动态干预。

A case study was selected in Liye,a historical and cultural town located in the west of Hunan.The theory of Complex Adaptive System was used in building the study system of the stakeholders expressing characters of different agents with protective behaviors.By using the method of agent-based model,five different agents were selected in analyzing the preference and influence of the system from a micro-level perspective,and protective behaviors diversity in a system was also analyzed in different development processes with a tourism destination.Based on the dynamic simulation with the outputs of multi-agents system,each agent expresses its own characters with the protective behavior.According to the results of agent-based model proposed in different stages with the model,how to choose and optimize the protective behavior,and how to coordinate the behavior of each agent in a system prospective were proposed,and the protective behavior strategies were also proposed.The results are obtained as follows.Firstly,the decision-making behavior expresses significant differences,and local residents play a leading role in the town＇s conservation.Secondly,the agent＇s behavior choices are characterized by autonomy,purpose and moderation.Thirdly,a hierarchical and classification coordination system of conservation behaviors should be established.Fourthly,the decision-making conservation behaviors of every agent and the system should be intervened dynamically.