城市节能与碳减排政策情景分析——以北京市为例

Scenario Analysis of Urban Energy Saving and Carbon Emission Reduction Policies: A Case Study of Beijing

城市是人类社会经济活动的中心,其能源消费占据了全球能源消费总量的75%,温室气体排放量也达到全球排放总量的80%。因此,将城市作为我国节能减排的主阵地具有重要的意义。本研究以北京市为例,借助情景分析方法探讨不同发展路径对城市未来能源消耗和碳排放的可能影响。通过构建LEAP模型分析基准(BAU)、政策(BP)和低碳(LC)3种不同情景下2007年-2030年北京市能源需求、能源结构和碳排放的发展趋势。研究结果显示,低碳情景下北京市能源需求总量预计2030年将达到88.61Mtce(百万吨标准煤),分别比基准情景和政策情景低55.82%和32.72%,碳排放总量分别比基准情景和政策情景低62.22%和40.27%,且在2026年达到拐点,开始出现下降趋势;能源结构优化效果明显,低碳情景下清洁能源所占比重达到57.75%,高于基准情景和政策情景16.93%和11.25%;相比于基准情景,工业部门在政策情景和低碳情景下节能减排贡献率均最高,建筑和交通运输部门将在北京未来低碳道路上发挥出巨大潜力。这些结果将为北京市未来能源发展和建设低碳城市提供重要的定量化依据。

As the center of human social and economic activities, cities account for approximately 75% of the world＇s energy consumption and contribute more than 80% of global greenhouse gases （GHGs）. Therefore, taking cities as the main place of energy-saving and emission-reduction is of great significance. With Beijing as a case and scenario analysis as the method, this study was conducted to investigate the possible impacts of different development ways on the future energy consumption and carbon emissions. The Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning （LEAP） model is used to simulate a range of pathways and to analyze how they would change the future trends of energy demand, energy structure and carbon emissions from the base year 2007 to 2030. Three scenarios have been designed to describe future energy strategies related to the development of Beijing city, namely the business-as-usual （BAU） scenario, the basic-policy （BP） scenario and the low-carbon （LC） scenario. The results show that under the LC scenario the total energy demand in Beijing is expected to reach 88.61 million metric tons coal equivalent （hereafter Mtce） by 2030, 55.82% and 32.72% lower than the values under the BAU and the BP scenario respectively and the total carbon emissions will also be 62.22% and 40.27% lower than the values under the above two scenarios respectively. In addition, the share of the clean and efficient energy in the final energy consumption mix under LC in 2030 will reach 57.75%, 16.93% and 11.25% higher than that under the BAU and the BP scenario respectively. In terms of energy conservation and emission reduction, the industrial sector will continue to act as the largest contributor under the BP and the LC scenario compared with the BAU scenario, while the building and transport sectors are identified as promising fields for achieving low carbon in Beijing over the next decades. The calculation results show that an integrated package of measures is most effective to save energy and reduce carbon emissions, although it faces the largest challenge to achieve the related targets.