广东省能源消费碳排放增长的结构分解分析

Structural Decomposition Analysis on the Growth of Carbon Emission From Energy Consumption in Guangdong

本文以广东省1997年、2002年、2007年可比价投入产出表以及历年能源消费资料为基础数据,从碳排放系数、能源消费结构、能源消费强度、中间投入结构、最终需求结构以及最终需求规模等6个因素对1997年-2007年广东省能源消费碳排放增长进行了结构分解分析。结果表明:①1997年-2007年广东省能源消费碳排放总量增加了204.50Mt-CO2,其中,最终需求规模扩张对碳排放增量的贡献率为182.8%,相反,能源消费强度的变化使碳排放减少了41.9%,其余4个因素的变化使碳排放减少了40.9%;②最终需求规模是引起各部门隐含排放增长的主要驱动力,但是在其他因素的共同影响下,半数部门因其产品需求而引起的隐含排放在1997年-2007年间并没有明显的增长。

Carbon dioxide （CO 2 ） mitigation has become an essential task since the 1997＂Kyoto Protocol＂. Therefore, the primary key factors that affect CO 2 emission must be identified to design efficient CO 2 mitigation measures for the future. This study seeks to understand the changes in the factors that influence Guangdong’s CO 2 emissions from energy consumption by decomposing overall emissions into a number of key determinants over a period of almost 10 years. In particular, based on input-output tables on comparable price and energy consumption data for each sector, this paper has made use of input-output structural decomposition analysis（SDA） to identify the key factors that affect the changes of CO 2 emissions from Guangdong’s energy consumption during 1997-2007. SDA makes it possible to investigate inter-relationships as well as intra-relationships among sectors of the economy and levels of consumption. An important facet of this method is the micro-level breakdown of economic structure and energy use. Finally, 40 sectors were got by the subdivision. They are most responsible for CO 2 emissions’growth, so we can focus on them to seek ways to reduce the emissions. In this study, changes in CO 2 emission were decomposed from six factors： CO 2 Emission Coefficient, Energy Consumption Intensity, Energy Consumption Structure, Intermediate Input Structure, Final Demand Structure and Total Final Demand. The empirical results indicate that： 1） the total carbon emissions from energy consumption in Guangdong increased by 204.50Mt-CO 2 from 1997 to 2007. During this period, Total Final Demand made the emissions increase by 182.8% while Energy Consumption Intensity made the emissions decline by 41.9% . Besides, the decrease rate of CO 2 emissions by CO 2 Emission Coefficient, Energy Consumption Structure, Intermediate Input Structure and Final Demand Structure are 11.6%, 1.5%, 11.3% and 16.6% respectively; 2） the growth of each sector’s implied carbon emissions was mainly caused by the effect of Total Final Demand during 1997-2007, but under the joint influence of other factors, almost 20 sectors got a tiny increment in implied emissions because of their products requirement.