中国粮食贸易中的虚拟资源生态要素估算及效应分析

Estimation of Virtual Factors of Resource and Ecology Embedded in Grain Trade of China

本文从国际和区际两个层面上对我国2000年和2008年粮食贸易导致的虚拟资源要素(虚拟水、虚拟耕地)、虚拟生态要素(虚拟化肥、虚拟农药、虚拟农膜)流动量进行计算,结果显示,无论国际还是区际虚拟资源生态要素的流动量均呈扩大趋势。区际虚拟资源生态要素流动结果表明,东北、华北和长江中下游地区是我国虚拟资源生态要素最主要的调出区,而华南、西南地区则是最主要的调入区。对粮食贸易虚拟资源生态要素流动产生的资源、生态、经济效应分别进行探讨,发现虚拟资源生态要素调出区在为保障国家整体利益及调入区的粮食安全做出重要贡献的同时,自身的农业资源和农业生态环境却承受着巨大的压力,因农业生产挤占绿水资源而对陆地自然生态系统构成威胁,并且经济发展也蒙受着较大损失。最后从完善农业生态补偿机制、水资源援助战略、跨流域调水、发展节水农业和绿色农业以及利用国际资源五个方面对我国虚拟资源生态要素流动的维持机制提供政策启示。

As a huge agricultural country, food security is very important for the stability of society and sustainable development of social economy in China for all the time. There are many ways to increase the food security level, among which crop trade is a major way, especially under the globalization background. Crop trade may cause the input or output of many resource and ecological factors, which may generate some effects of resource, ecology and economy. Among these factors, Virtual water flow embedded in crop trade has been studied in many papers, but other factors were ignored in some degree, and there are still few achievements in this field till now. As for the effects of resource, ecology and economy, there are fewer studies. In this paper, flows of virtual resource factors （virtual water, virtual land） and virtual ecological factors （virtual chemical fertilizers, virtual pesticides, virtual agricultural film） caused by the crop trade in 2000 and 2008 in China were calculated from both the international and interregional aspects. The results indicate that the flows of both two factors show an expanding tendency in both international and interregional aspects. In international aspect, there is an obvious expansion of net imports of virtual resource and ecological factors, and the main reason is the rapid increase in soybean imports. In interregional aspect, South China and Southwest China are the most important inflow regions of virtual resource and ecological factors while Northeast China, North China and the middle and lower reaches of Changjiang River are the main discharge regions. In addition, the paper has respectively discussed the effects of resource, ecology and economy caused by the flow of virtual resource and ecological factors embedded in grain trade. The results show that the discharge regions ’agricultural resources and agricultural ecological environment have to endure great pressure, and the terrestrial natural ecosystems are being threatened due to diversion of green water by agricultural production. Moreover, the economic development also suffers great losses. At the end of the paper, policy enlightenments for the support mechanism of virtual resource and ecological factors’flow in China were put forward from such five aspects as refining the agro-ecological compensation mechanism, implementing the water resources assistance strategy, carrying out the water transfer projects across river basins, developing water-saving and green agriculture and extensively utilizing the international resources.