基于概率思想的情报分析质量控制研究

Research on the Control of the Quality of Intelligence Analysis Based on the Theory of Probability

介绍情报界运用概率思想控制情报分析质量的价值、基本观念和教育培训基础,并探讨运用中的障碍。提出应用历史资料、证据可靠性、预测市场法、概率建模和嵌入分析方法评估5种运用途径。最后从情报观念转变的高度分析了运用概率思想的理论意义。

This article describes how the intelligence community uses the theory of probability to control the value, basic idea and educational and training foundation of the quality of intelligence analysis, and discusses the obstacles in the operation process. The article proposes 5 approaches ： applying historical data, reliability of evidence, market forecasting method, probability modeling and embedded analysis method assessment. Finally, the article analyzes the theoretical significance of utilizing the theory of proba- bility from the perspective of the change of intelligence concept.