市场和技术对企业新技术采用最优时机的影响

Impact of Market and Technology on Firm's Optimal Timing of Adopting New Technology

基于古诺模型,研究了产品的可替代程度和技术的有效性对企业采用新技术的时机的影响。结果表明:率先采用新技术的企业采用新技术的时机与产品的可替代程度呈倒U型关系;当产品的可替代性足够大且技术有效性充分小时,较晚采用新技术的企业采用新技术的时机会随市场竞争的加剧而提前;两类企业采用新技术的时机与技术的有效性均成负相关关系;面对技术有效性的同水平提高,较晚采用新技术的企业采用新技术的时机将提早得更多。

Based on the Cournot model,this paper studies the influences of the substitutability of product and the effectiveness of technology on the timing that a firm adopts a new technology. The result shows as follows：there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between the substitut- ability of product and the optimal timing of the firm which firstly adopts a new technology;when the substitutability of product and the effective- ness of technology are in some range,more and more fierce competition weakens the incentives for two kinds of firms＇ adopting a new technolo- gy;the timing of two kinds of firms are all negatively related to the effectiveness of technology;when facing with the same improvement of the effectiveness of technology,the firm which adopts a new technology late prefers to advance the timing of adopting a new technology.