畜禽载畜量预警的实证分析——以内蒙古牧业旗为例

Empirical Analysis on Early Warning of Livestock Carrying Capacity:A Case of Animal Husbandry Banner in Inner Mongolia

从宏观经济的角度,以内蒙古33个牧业旗草畜平衡状况为例,建立了可食饲草储量模型、适宜载畜量估算模型和畜禽载畜量预警模型,并进行了实证分析,得出载畜量超载率。通过主要加入畜禽利用率、标准干草折算系数、草地利用率等参数弥补现有模型的不足。最后给出相关的政策建议。

From a macroeconomic point of view,according to the condition of forage-animal balance of 33 banners in Inner Mongolia,this paper establishes the model of reserve of edible forage, the model of suitable for carrying capacity estimation and the model of prediction analysis, and calculates the carrying capacity overload rate. Throngh mainly joining pasture utilization, standard conversion coefficient of hay,grass utilization and other parameters into the model,it modifies the model. Finally,it gives some relevant policy recommendations.