行业间知识溢出与中国产业发展——基于贝叶斯层级模型的实证研究

Industrial Knowledge Spillovers and the Development of China's Industry:An Empirical Study Based on Bayesian Hierarchical Model

二十一世纪以来,中国工业经济进入了平稳、快速增长时期。与此同时,中国工业经济中的结构性问题也日益凸显,主要表现为产业发展失衡、产业创新能力不足等。其中,产业研发投入不足,知识产出有限,是导致上述结构性问题的重要原因。而产业间的知识溢出则是影响各产业知识产出的重要因素。为此,本文在利用贝叶斯空间层级模型测度中国行业间知识溢出效应的基础上,致力于检验行业间知识溢出对中国产业发展的影响。实证结果显示:行业间知识溢出通过推动各产业的知识生产,能够有效促进产业发展。本文提出,应进一步加大产业,特别是具有较大知识溢出输出效应的基础性产业的研发投入,加快其人力资本开发和积累,以促进中国产业结构优化升级和长期稳定增长。

Since the 21st century,China＇ s industrial economy has come to a stage of steady and rapid growth. While at the same time, the structure problem is increasingly prominent, such as imbalance development among industries, lack of industrial innovation, and so on. The most important reason for this is lack of industrial R＆D input and the limit of knowledge output. As the industrial knowledge spillovers are the key factor that effects the industrial knowledge output,we measure the knowledge spillovers among China＇ s industries by the Bayesian hierarchical model, and test the effect of inter - industrial knowledge spillovers on China＇ s manufacture industrial development. The results show that we can promote the upgrading of the industrial structure and keep longterm stable growth by increasing R＆D input and accelerating the accumulation of human capital.