住房价格、消费与中国货币政策最优选择:基于异质性房价预期的视角

House Price,Consumption and Optimal Monetary Policy:A Perspective from Heterogeneous Expectation

在异质性房价预期和流动性约束条件下,本文构建了包括家庭消费决策、企业生产决策以及中央银行货币政策决策的理论模型。在此基础上,本文采用混合的RBC-VAR方法和1998年1季度至2010年3季度的数据模拟分析了住房价格、消费和货币政策选择之间的关系。结果表明:预期房价上涨的家庭越多,住房价格波动对消费波动的影响越大;贷款价值比越高,住房价格波动对消费波动的放大效应越强,但经验证据并没有支持这种放大效应;盯住住房价格的货币政策获益很少,其在减少产出波动的同时增加了通货膨胀波动。因此,中国人民银行应遏制房价偏离均衡的上涨,尤其是房价上涨预期,但货币政策不宜盯住住房价格。

The paper develops a model concluding household＇ s consumption decision, enterprise ＇ s production decision and central bank＇ s decision of monetary policy,considering household＇ s heterogeneous expectation on house price and borrowing constraints. Based on the model,the paper adopts combined econometric method denoted by RBC -VAR and the data sample from the first quarter in 1998 to the third quarter in 2010, and simulates the relation among house price, consumption and optimal monetary policy. The results show： the more householding rising expectation on house price, the more significant effect the volatility of house price will have on volatility of consumption; the bigger loan -to -value ratio is, the more significant magnified effect of house price fluctuation on consumption fluctuation is. But, empirical evidences do not support this magnified effect. Central bank could not benefit much from targeting house price, because the decreasing output volatility is at the cost of increasing inflation volatility. The monetary policy suggestion are as follows：Chinese central bank should focus on curbing high biased house price, especially rising expectation. However, monetary policy should not target house price.