灾后恢复的特征与可恢复性评价的研究

Research on Characters of Recovery Stage and Recoverability Assessment in Emergency Management

在应急管理的全过程中,对于受灾地区的恢复是应急的重要组成部分。如何衡量一个受灾地区的可恢复性,或者受灾地区某个功能的可恢复性,是其中的重要问题。灾后恢复分为灾后应急响应阶段的快速恢复以及恢复重建阶段的全面恢复两个阶段,首先对两个恢复阶段的特征进行了研究,二者在恢复对象、时间、成本、水平等方面都有不同的特征。接下来从探讨可恢复性评价的内涵出发,提出了可恢复性评价包括两类评价模型:评价优先恢复哪类受损对象的可恢复性评价以及针对某一类型受损对象如何进行恢复的可恢复性评价模型。构建针对受损对象种类的可恢复性模型需要考虑到受损恢复阶段的需求、对象的重要性和受损程度等因素,以此为基础建立模型;构建针对同一类型受损对象的可恢复性评价模型需要综合考虑到恢复阶段的需求、对象的受损程度、时间、付出、间接损失等因素,以此为基础建立模型。最后进行了几种不同典型情况的算例分析,验证了模型的可靠性与适用性。

The recovery of a region which suffers from a disaster or an incident is very important for the victims and the emergency management. The recoverability includes two aspects, the recoverability of the region and the recoverability of some necessary functions which can help support the operation of people＇s safety guard or daily life. From the view of time cycle, recoverability can be divided into two stages, emergency response and post-disaster reconstruction stage. The two stages have different characters in damaged things, time, cost and levels. The recoverability assessment requires two types of assessment： the assessment of the priority to different types of damaged things and the assessment of how to recover a certain type of damaged things. The former assessment model is given based on the needs of people, the significance of things and the damage of things, while the latter assessment model is given based on the needs of people, the damage of things, time, cost and indirect loss. Some typically cases are studied to verify the reliability and applicability of the assessment model.