中国工业增长因素的实证研究

The Factor Contribution to the Chinese Industry Growth:1952-2009

使用参数估计法与隐型变量法估算了1952-2009年中国工业的增长因素。研究发现,1952-2009年我国工业总体上表现为典型的粗放型增长方式,但在不同时期各增长因素的重要性表现出阶段性特征,特别是1996年后,智力要素对产出增长的贡献度第一次超过了初级要素投入的贡献度,成为推动中国工业产出增长的首要因素,表明中国工业的增长方式开始由粗放型向集约型转变。要进一步推动我国工业的集约型增长,需要遏制资本产出弹性的下降趋势,并充分发挥人力资本的作用。

Using the parameter estimation method and latent variable approach,this paper investigates China's industrial output elasticity and TFP growth,and estimates the contribution of various factors to output growth from 1952 to 2009.The main findings are that the growth mode of industrial is extensive from 1952 to 2009.But the importance of each factor to growth has phased characteristics,especially between 1996 and 2009,the contribution of intelligence factors exceeds that of primary inputs in the first time.This shows that the growth mode starts the transformation from extensive to intensive in China's industry.In order to provide the continuous driving force for Chinese industry growth by technological progress,it is necessary to keep the elasticity of capital from falling.At the same time,we should fulfill the effect of human capital.