中国的碳减排路径与战略选择——基于八大行业部门碳排放量的指数分解分析

Strategic Measures to Reduce China's Carbon Emissions:Based on Index Decomposition Analysis of Carbon Emissions in Eight Industries

在中国现实国情下,如何实现低碳发展事关国家的长远发展战略。研究结果发现:经济规模每增长1个百分点,碳排放量平均增加15百万吨(MT),但是不同行业间经济增长的边际碳排放量差异很大;经济结构重型化加剧碳排放的增加,制造业比重每增加1个百分点,碳排放量平均增加56MT;技术进步推动能源强度下降,是减少碳排放的核心动力,能源强度每下降1个百分点,碳排放量平均减少33MT;以煤炭为主的能源结构导致碳排放密度居高不下,能源结构变化的减排效应并不显著,但是,综合碳排放密度下降是一个积极的信号,显现出能源结构优化的迹象。推动产业结构调整、能源结构优化,促进节能技术与工艺创新、走新型工业化道路,是实现中国低碳发展的必经之路。

In the actual Chinese context,how to achieve low-carbon development is an issue that has a bearing on the long-term national development strategy.The research findings show that a one percentage point increase in economic scale will result in an average increase of 15Mt in carbon emissions.However,the proportion of marginal carbon emissions in economic growth varies greatly across industries.The higher the percentage of heavy industry in the economic structure,the higher the carbon emissions:a one percentage point rise in the share of manufacturing industry is achieved at the cost of 56Mt in carbon emission.Technological innovations facilitate a reduction in energy intensity,and serves as the core driver in reducing carbonemissions.A one percentage point decrease in energy intensity will cause an average reduction of 33 Mt in carbon emissions.Our coal-dominated energy structure has resulted in a continuing high level of carbon emission intensity.Changes in energy structure have not had a significant effect on carbon emissions.Nevertheless,decreased density of overall carbon emissions is a positive signal,indicating that China's energy structure is optimizing.Consequently,only through industrial structure adjustment and energy structure optimization,application of energy-saving technologies,and new industrialization,will low-carbon development be truly realized in China.