中国出口贸易隐含碳排放增长及其驱动因素研究

Research on CO_2 Embodied in China’s Export and Its Driving Factors

文章基于可比价投入产出表,利用结构分解分析法研究了中国出口贸易隐含碳排放增长及其驱动因素。中国出口贸易隐含碳排放数量巨大,在中国碳排放总额中占比很高,且在行业分布和国别流向方面表现出较高的集中度;出口总量增长是导致中国出口贸易隐含碳排放增长的主要因素,而直接排放系数降低和中间生产技术进步对碳排放增长起到了一定的抑制作用,但出口结构改善对抑制碳排放增加的作用非常有限,在某些年份和个别出口贸易伙伴中,由于结构恶化反而导致碳排放增加。因此,我国在采取措施降低出口碳排放强度的同时,亟需进一步加大出口商品升级换代的力度。

Based on constant price input-output tables,this paper has researched the CO2 emissions embodied in China’s export and its driving factors by using structural decomposition analysis.The result indicates that the CO2 emissions embodied in China’s export not only has an enormous quantity and high ratio in China’s total CO2 emissions,but also has a high concentration ratio.Export volume is the main driving factor which results in the rapid growth of the CO2 emissions embodied in China’ s export.The reduction of direct coefficient of CO2 emissions and the advance of intermediate technique has restrained the growth to some degree.However,the restraint effect of export structure improvement is quite limited.On the contrary,the deterioration of export structure induced CO2 emissions in some years and some exporting countries.Therefore,China should take measures to lower the CO2 emission coefficients.On the same time,it is urgent to strengthen the updating and upgrading of China’ s export commodities.