贵州省流行性脑脊髓膜炎发病时间的圆形分布分析

Analysis on the seasonality of epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis with circle distribution in Guizhou province

目的掌握贵州省流行性脑脊髓膜炎(流脑)的发病时间特点,为制定防制策略提供科学依据。方法采用圆形分布原理分析2002-2009年贵州省流脑发病时间分布,用Watson-Willianms检验贵州省各地区及流脑疫苗纳入免疫规划前后发病高峰是否存在差异。结果 2002-2009年贵州省流脑发病流行期为上一年12月12目至次年5月25日,发病高峰期为1月20日至4月15日,发病高峰日为3月4日。贵州省9个地区的发病高峰存在统计学差异(F=9.34,P<O.01),贵阳、六盘水和毕节流脑发病高峰日在2月,其余6个地区发病高峰日在3月。流脑疫苗纳入免疫规划前后的发病高峰存在统计学差异(t=2.699,P<0.01),纳入免疫规划后流脑发病流行期缩短44d,高峰期缩短22d,发病高峰日提前10d。结论贵州省流脑发病具有明显的季节性,发病高峰集中在1～4月,存在地区差异,流脑疫苗纳入免疫规划后发病流行期和高峰期缩短,高峰日提前。

Objective To know the prevalence season of epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis in Guizhou province well,so as to provide scientific basis for the prevention and control.Methods Circle distribution was used to analyze the prevalence season of epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis in Guizhou province from the year 2002 to 2009,and the Watson-Willianms test was used to identify the differences of the morbiliry fastigiums in all the districts,and between the time before the Meningococcal vaccines were included in immunization programme and the after.Results In Guizhou province,in the years 2002-2009,the epidemic stage of epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis was from December 12^（th） to May 25^（th） the next year,the peak stage was from January 20^（th） to April 15^（th）,the peak day was on March 4^（th）.And there were obvious differences on the morbiliry peak time in the nine districts（F=9.34,P0.01）.The mobility peak days of Guiyang,Liupanshui and Bijie districts were during the February,the others 6 districts＇ peak days were during the March.The peak time of epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis in Guizhou differed obviously when Meningococcal vaccines were brought into immunization programme（t=2.699,P0.01） After Meningococcal vaccines were brought into immunization programme,the epidemic stage and peak stage became 44 and 22 days shorter,and the peak day was 10 days earlier. Conclusion The morbidity of epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis had an obvious seasonality in Guizhou province,which concentrated in January to April and it had regional differences.After Meningococcal vaccines were brought into immunization programme,the epidemic stages and the peak stages became shorter, and the peak day happened ahead of time.