福建省入境旅游规模时空差异及灰色模型预测分析

Temporal and spatial differences and grey prediction model analysis of inbound tourism scale in Fujian province

任何经济现象的空间分布都不是绝对平衡的。由于受经济发展水平、基础设施、服务设施、城市职能、旅游资源分布差异等的影响,入境旅游空间分布也存在差异。文章运用标准差、变异系数、基尼系数和赫芬达尔指数,分析福建入境旅游规模空间分布的差异程度,剖析其存在差异的原因,并构建福建省入境旅游规模的灰色预测GM(1,1)模型,对未来6年进行预测。研究得出:福建入境旅游规模的空间差异很大,集中化程度高,主要集中在厦门、泉州和福州三地。福建入境旅游规模基本上以每年12%的速度增长,入境旅游规模不断增大。

The spatial distribution of any economic phenomenon is not absolute balanced. Due to the impact on the level of e- conomic development, infrastructure, service facilities, urban function and the different distribution of tourism resource, the spa- tial distribution of inbound tourism is also different. This paper uses the standard deviation, coefficient of variation, Gini coeffi- cient, Herfindal index to analyze the different degrees of the inbound tourism of Fujian in spatial distribution and the reasons for the differences, and build Grey GM （ 1, 1 ） prediction model to predict inbound tourism of the next 6 years. The research shows that inbound tourism of Fujian province varies widely in the spatial distribution and concentrates on certain places, such as Xia- men, Quanzhou and Fuzhou. The inbound tourism of Fujian is growing at the rate of 12% per annum, and the inbound tourism is increasing.