中国粮食生产潜力及未来粮食生产研究

STUDY ON THE PRODUCTION POTENTIALITY AND THE FUTURE GRAINPRODUCTION OF CHINESE CEREALS AND GRAINS

首先从土地资源利用率提高、灌溉水和化肥利用率提高、良种增产、技术推广、调整粮食生产结构 5个方面分析了中国粮食产量提高的潜力 ;其次选取了影响粮食产量的播种面积、化肥施用量、粮食收购价格指数、受灾面积和灌溉面积 5个因素 ,在以上分析、定性判断和多元回归的基础上 ,建立了数学模型 .预测表明 ,2 0 0 0年、2 0 1 0年、2 0 30年 ,中国粮食生产总量分别是51 484 3万t、5631 4 3万t、62 31 5 4万t;最后提出建议 ,为在未来实现以上的粮食生产总量目标 ,必须长期稳定粮食播种面积 ,增大农业投入 ,加强农田基本建设 ,依靠科技进步促进粮食稳产高产 ,加强粮食基地建设 ,形成规模生产 ,大力发展粮食生产的社会化服务体系 .

Firstly,the potentiality of raising Chinese grain yield was analyzed for increase of the utilization ratio for land resource,irrigation system and chemical fertilizer utilization ratio,output of grain seed,technique spread and modification of grain production structure.Secondly,five factors influenced on grain yield—sowing area,fertilizing quantity,price index for purchasing grain,disaster area and irrigation area,were chosen,and mathematical model was build on analysis,quality judgment and polybasic regression.The forecast showed Chinese grain total yield is 514.843 million ton in2000,563.143 million ton in 2010,and 623.154 million ton in 2030 respectively.Finally,in order to realize the total aim of grain production,some essential steps must be done well.