基于熵权-HDT的航空器维修人误概率确定

Determination of Human Error Probability in Aircraft Maintenance Based on Entropy Weight and HDT

人误是造成民用航空维修差错的主要因素。为确定不同情境下人误发生概率,结合某维修基地具体情况,采用熵权法确定主要的影响因子,并基于全决策树法分析主要影响因子对航空器维修人误概率的影响程度。计算结果显示,该维修基地人因可靠性的主要影响因子包括航空器维修人员的安全态度、技能、沟通、工作环境、压力以及工段长领导能力。根据各主要影响因子的不同品质描述等级组合,确定该情境下航空器维修人员的人误概率。鉴于该维修基地人因可靠性影响最明显的因子是"沟通",提出信息及时交流、明确沟通重要性等解决措施。

Human error is a main cause of civil aircraft maintenance accidents. In order to estimate human error probability in different scenarios, significant influence factors are identified for an aircraft maintenance base by using entropy weight analysis, and the relationship between significant influence factors and human error probability is analyzed by using HDT method. Results show that significant influence factors include aircraft maintenance human＂ safety attitude, skill, communication, work environment, stress and leadership, and governance of maintenance supervisors. The aircraft maintenance human error proba- bilities are determined based on the integration of different influence factor quality in different scenarios. In view of the fact that ＂communication＂ is the most significant influence factor in this base, measures are proposed such as exchanging information in time and understanding the significance of communication.