城市应急物流需求区域确定及等级划分方法

A Determination and Classification Method for Urban Emergency Logistics Demand Area

为提高应对突发事件的物资保障能力,提出基于联合国救灾署(UNDRO)灾害风险评估模型的应急物流需求区域风险预评估流程。采用应急物流需求总量,分类别、分事件需求量,需求密度,需求比例等指标进行物流需求测度,研究突发事件发生概率与需求扰动水平、需求密度、需求的自我供给水平相结合的3种需求区域等级划分方法。实例研究表明:区域4、3、1作为城市商业中心,人口密度高及消防隐患多,应急物流需求等级高于其他区域;城市外围区域9,由于工业基础较好,抗风险能力及自我修复能力高,需求等级低。作为城市的有机组成部分,各区域地质灾害事故的发生概率相差不大,城市管理者应关注火灾事故及安全生产事故对应急物流需求的重大影响。

In order to strengthen the support ability of emergency response, a risk pre-assessment process for emergency logistics demand area is proposed based on disaster risk evaluation model of UNDRO. For evaluating the logistics demand area, a series of indexes are established which include the total amount of emergency logistics demand and classification according to the type of incident and different type of materi- als, demand density, demand supply ratio. Through combining the probability of emergencies with the demand perturbation level and area density, demand self-supply ratio, three kinds of classification methods for logistics demand area are studied. Example results show that the risk grades of area 4,3,1 are higher than those of other areas owing to their location in the business center of this city, high population density and big fire danger; the risk grade of the outer area 9 of the central city is lower due to its better industrial base and higher ability of response to risk and self-repairing. As an integral part of the city, the probability of geological disasters in every area has little difference, so, the city should pay attention to the important influence of production accidents and fire accidents on emergency logistics demand.