产业结构与环境污染关系的实证分析——基于1995-2009年的数据

The Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between Industrial Structure and Environmental Pollution:Based on the data for the year 1995-2009

本文首先运用Granger因果检验方法分析国民经济各产业产出与污染排放量之间的联系;然后用回归方法分析三大产业在国民经济中所占的比例变化对环境污染的影响;之后针对各地区不同工业内部格局,计算相应的污染治理努力程度。研究表明:环境污染与各产业产值间存在长期稳定的协同效应;三大产业在国民经济中所占的比例影响着环境污染,工业产业是污染排放的最大因素;污染控制总量不能直接评价一个地区污染治理努力程度。

First, we use Granger causality test method to analyze the relationship between the industrial output in national economy and the pollution emissions; then use regression method to analyze the impact of the change between the share of the three major industry in the national economy and the pollution of the environment; and then calculated the effort of pollution controlling in each area with different industrial internal structure. Studies shown that： there is longterm stable cooperative effect between the pollution of the environment and the industrial output value; the proportion of three major industry in the national economy influence the pollution of the environment, and industrial pollution is the biggest factor; the total amount of pollution can not directly evaluate the pollution control efforts in a region.