物价水平、物价水平预期与经济增长——来自江苏的实证检验

The Relationship among Price Level,Expected Price Level and Economic Growth: Jiangsu Province Experience

在保持经济持续快速增长的同时,有效稳定物价水平是政府的一项重要工作。本文以江苏省为样本,实证研究了物价水平、物价水平预期与经济增长之间的关系。基于江苏省物价水平的自相关性,建立了附加预期的"产出—物价"模型,使用江苏省1985-2010年的CPI指数和GDP增长率数据对模型进行检验,检验结果证明了模型的有效性,并据此进行实证测算,基于测算结果提出物价水平与经济增长均衡发展的对策建议。

It is an important macro-control task for government to maintain the price stability while keeping the rapid economic growth. The article focuses on the positive study on the relationship between economic growth and price levels based on the sample of Jiangsu Province. Based on the autocorrelation of the price level in Jiangsu Province, the research established an expectationsaugmented ＂OutputPrice＂ model. It used the CPI data and the GDP growth rate in Jiangsu Province from 1985 to 2010 to make some related tests. It proves the validity of the model and provides the empirical calculation of quantitative relation among price level, GDP growth rate and the expected price level. Based on the results, it gives some relevant policy recommendations for the balanced development.