国际气候变化制度的未来蓝图——从《哥本哈根协议》到《坎昆协议》

The Drafting of the Future International Climate Regime:From the Copenhagen Accord to the Cancún Accords

全球气候变化已经引起国际社会的关注,产生了不同的国际社会组织,并制定了各项相关国际社会制度,这些制度在解决国际气候变化的问题上具有关键性和决定性作用:首先,该制度起着建构性的作用;其次,国际气候变化制度必须对激活该项制度起到推波助澜的作用,使得处于不同地位的各方在谈判过程中能够建立共识,并且能在国际层面推动达成更具雄心的气候变化政策。这些促成了《哥本哈根协议》、《坎昆协议》的诞生。《哥本哈根协议》明确将气温升高控制在2摄氏度作为减排的目标。《坎昆协议》将此目标具体化,并提出气温升高控制在1.5摄氏度的任务。"后2012"国际气候变化制度必须具有全球性特征,遵循公平原则和共同但有区别的责任原则,将世界上主要的温室气体排放国家美国和一些发展中国家纳入进来。从性质上来说,《坎昆协议》所建构的可测量、可报告、可核证体系代替原有的制度机制,这将是国际气候变化制度中的全新改变。

Global climate change has aroused extensive concern in the international community, given rise to different international organizations and catalyzed various international climate change regimes. These regimes play a pivotal and decisive role in relieving the threat of international climate change： a structuring role and the revitalizing role of a driving-force, which makes different positions progress in negotiation processes and allows the set up of an international consensus and the promotion of more ambitious climate policies such as the Copenhagen Accord and the Canctin Accords. While the Copenhagen Accord involves commitment to drastically reduce GHG emissions so as to hold temperature increase below or at the 2℃ threshold, the Cancun Accords concretize this goal and calls for a new 1.5℃ threshold. The post-2012 international climate regime must respect the equity principle, the common but differentiated responsibilities principle （CBDR principle） and bring together the whole of major GHG emitters including the United States and major developing emitters. Essentially speaking, the Measurement, Reporting, and Verification system （MRV system） in the Cancfn Accords is replacing observance and is thus a quite different regime than the existing.