基于CEMM模型的中国粮食及其主要品种的需求预测

China Grains Demand Forecast Analysis Based on China Economy-wide Multi-market Model

建立了中国多市场多部门模型(CEMM),并运用该模型模拟预测2007—2030年中国粮食及其主要品种稻谷、玉米和小麦的消费需求情况。研究结果表明,中国粮食消费需求总量在未来仍持续增长,但增长速度会明显放缓,尤其到2015年后趋于稳定,2030年,粮食需求量维持在6亿t左右。饲料用粮和工业用粮增长相对较快,2030年分别达到1.6亿t和1.3亿t。从品种来看,稻谷、玉米和小麦仍是最重要的粮食消费品种,2030年分别达到1.9亿t、2.0亿t和1.0亿t,共占粮食总消费量的83%。随着粮食消费需求的变化,粮食的贸易也有所变化,对于稻谷和小麦,中国仍然能够自给自足,小麦甚至还会有少量的出口;玉米则由出口国变成进口国,但进口量仍然有限,2030年自给率还在95%左右。因此,尽管中国粮食需求会有所增长,但并不会对国际粮食市场产生大的影响。

China Economywide Muhimarket Model （CEMM） was constructed and applied to forecast the demand of total grain, rice, wheat and maize. Results showed that grain demand would still keep increasing, while the growth rate would decrease gradually, espe cially after 2015, grain demand would become more steady, and there would be about 600 million t in 2030. Grain feed and industrial use of grain increased more rapidly than food demand, and up to 160 million t and 130 million t respectively. Rice, maize and wheat would be the most important for grain consumption, about 190 million t, 200 million t and 100 million t in 2030 respectively, and their total share was about 83%. The changes of grain demand also would lead to the changes of grain trade. For rice and wheat, China still could achieve self sufficiency and there was even small export for wheat, while for maize, China would change from export country to import country, but its import would be not too much. The rate of selfsufficiency would be still about 95% in 2030. So, China would not exert large impacts on in- ternational grain market although the increased demand of grain.