近50年来新疆石河子地区的气候变化

Analysis on Climate Change in Recent 50 Years in Shihezi Prefecture,Xinjiang

利用新疆石河子地区3个气象代表站点1961—2010年的年平均气温、年最高、最低气温和年降水量等资料,研究近50年以来石河子地区的气候变化特征。结果表明:石河子地区气候明显变暖,年平均气温上升率0.38℃/10年。2000—2010年的年平均气温较20世纪60年代上升了1.56℃。2006年平均气温达到历史最高点8.77℃。石河子地区降水量总体呈上升趋势,年平均降水量上升率为12.79mm/10年。冬季降水量呈明显的阶梯型年代际增加趋势,上升率为3.4mm/10年。2000—2010年平均降水量达到年代最高值。石河子地区气温上升率较较全国偏高的原因是,地处新疆北部,在高纬度区对全球变暖的敏感性强。气候变暖引起的海洋气团活动加强和本地区区域小循环增强是造成该地区降水量增多的主要原因。

To understand the environmental effect over Shihezi Prefecture of Xinjiang,in this paper climate change in recent 50 years is studied using the temperature and precipitation data observed by 3 typical meteorological stations in the prefecture during the period 1961-2010.The results show that the mean annual temperature in Shihezi Prefecture was in an increase trend in recent 50 years,especially since 1985. The mean annual tempera- ture in recent 10 years was 1.56~Chigher than the average in the 1960s. The increasing rate of mean annual tem- perature was 0.38℃/10 a,which was as high as that in entire Xinjiang and even in north Xinjiang. The increas- ing rates of mean minimum and maximum temperatures were 0.61~C/10 a and 0.17~C/10 a respectively,and the increase of mean minimum temperature was much higher than that of mean maximum and annual temperature. The maximum and minimum temperatures in recent 10 years were increased by 0.8℃ and 2.0~C respectively compared with that in the 1960s. High temperature occurred mostly after the 1990s, and low temperature occurred mostly during the period from the 1960s to the 1970s. An abrupt change of mean annual,minimum and maximum temperatures occurred after 2005. Annual precipitation was also in an increase trend since recent 50 years,its in- creasing rate was 12.79 mm/10 a,but it was lower than that in north Xinjiang （ 19.75 mm/10 a） . There is a posi- tive correlation between temperature increase and precipitation increase,that is,climate in Shihezi Prefecture is changing from warming-drying type to warming-wetting type, and such trend is basically accordant with that in entire Xinjiang and northwest China. The annual,winter,spring, summer and autumn precipitations in recent 10 years were increased by 45.1 mm, 14.4 mm,6.2 mm,8.1 mm and 15.8 mm respectively compared with those in the 1960s. Climate change in Shihezi Prefecture is jointly affected by natural factors and human activities.