行业消费、乘数效应与扩大内需的对策研究

Strategy on Industry Consumption,Multiplier Effect and Expanding Domestic Demand

在后危机时代,各国经济发展缓慢,外部需求普遍减弱,为了刺激经济增长,内部需求成为重要的影响因素之一。Archibald(1967)提出的地区消费法,可从行业角度探索居民对本地产品的边际消费倾向,同时结合居民的边际收入效应,计算出各个行业的乘数效应,从而探索扩大内需的对策。分析结果表明,产业链较长的资金密集型、技术密集型制造业乘数效应明显,而产业链相对较短的资源依赖型、劳动密集型产业乘数效应较弱。

After the economic crisis,the economic growth of countries is decline,and external demand weakens.So,the impact of domestic demand has become an important factor.The local consumption method proposed by Archibald investigates local product＇s marginal consume propensity,at the same time combining with the marginal income effect of residents,calculates the multiplier effect of various industries,and explores measures to expand domestic demand.Results suggest that the multiplier effects are more obvious in the long chain of capital-intensive and the technology-intensive manufacturing,and relatively multiplier effect is weak in the short chain of resource-dependent and the labor-intensive industries.