后限购时代我国房地产市场风险分析

Analysis of Real Estate Market Risk in the Post-crisis Era

后危机时代,对房地产业的扶持政策被限购令等调控政策取代,也引发了人们对房地产市场风险的忧虑。交易量萎缩、房价下跌、房地产股票下跌、房地产信托违约风险提高等使房地产市场的风险突显。房地产业对消费、投资及其他产业的影响使得房地产市场成为一个政府和金融资本深度介入的市场。政府的政策导向自然成为决定房地产市场风险趋势的重要因素。政府对房地产业的调控意在推动市场整合,以城镇化带动中国经济发展的战略使房地产市场的商品性需求仍旧强劲,房价受通货膨胀支撑等因素使得中短期内房地产市场不存在系统性风险。然而,从长期看,应警惕汇率波动对房地产市场的冲击,警惕人口年龄结构变化对房地产业的影响。

The policy of supporting the real estate industry was placed by a series of tighten measures in the post-crisis era,which provoked the concerns on real estate market risk.The contraction of trade volume,falling house prices and real estate stocks and the default risk of real estate trust highlight risks of the real estate market.The impact of real estate on consumption,investment and other industries makes the real estate market be deeply interfered by government and financial capital.So,the attitude of government naturally become an important factor which decides the trend of real estate market.The factors such as government regulation intend to promote the real estate market integration,urbanization economic development strategy supports strong demand for the real estate,the real estate price supported by inflation make the real estate market have no systemic risk in the short term.However,in the long run,we should be alert on the impact of exchange rate fluctuations and changes in population age structure to the real estate market.